NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$22.61
0.23 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
+2.31%
90d:
-1.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.37
Based on -35.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $22.61, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.68 to $22.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$21.68 -
$22.81
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.68 -
$22.81
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.20
Resistance Level
$23.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.59
Wall Street Target
$24.32
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.5%
Profit Margin
87.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.59
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.56
(0%)
3-Year Target
$22.54
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$22.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -75.6%)
$63.88
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: -75.6%)
$22.10
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -75.6%)
$18.79
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$23.65
(+5%)
Analyst growth -3.9%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$21.50
(-5%)
Market implied -3.9%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$15.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.64
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 3:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
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