ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$96.04
0.32 (0.33%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.82
Based on -35.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $96.04, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.20 to $96.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.95 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.95 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$92.20 -
$96.27
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$92.20 -
$96.27
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.94
Resistance Level
$96.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$107.95
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.10
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$96.49
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$96.87
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$95.79
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -75.4%)
$204.29
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -75.4%)
$93.57
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -75.4%)
$79.54
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.67
Bull Case
$90.98
(-5%)
Analyst growth -12.2%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$82.71
(-14%)
Market implied -12.2%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$64.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Maamoun Rajeh
SELL
10000 shares
2025-08-22
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-04
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Advanced ACGL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACGL price and gamma walls.
