FIHL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FIHL - Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited
$20.71
-0.20 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
+9.4%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FIHL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FIHL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.99
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.73
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FIHL is currently trading at $20.71, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.01 to $21.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.2) is in line with its historical norms (5.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIHL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIHL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$20.01 -
$21.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.39)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.01 -
$21.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.52
Resistance Level
$21.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.24
Wall Street Target
$22.39
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 5.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.83
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.96
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$21.09
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.52
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 19.6%)
$149.06
(+620%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 19.6%)
$35.44
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 19.6%)
$30.12
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$43.08
(+108%)
Analyst growth 87.3%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$39.17
(+89%)
Market implied 87.3%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$14.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FIHL showing a specific setup today?
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