ACHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$25.69
-0.12 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
+2.72%
30d:
-4.85%
90d:
+56.5%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ACHC is down 9.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 532 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.35
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $25.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.55 to $27.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.34, while resistance sits at $30.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.46 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.34, while resistance sits at $30.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.46 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.55 -
$27.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.46)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.6% growth with 7.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.55 -
$27.69
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.34
Resistance Level
$30.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.80
Wall Street Target
$28.46
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.6%
Profit Margin
-32.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 11.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.29
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$31.00
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$33.98
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$60.15
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 16.0%)
$40.33
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 16.0%)
$30.53
(+18%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACHC price and gamma walls.
