ACRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$4.85
0.09 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+0.62%
30d:
-3.39%
90d:
-3.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ACRE is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-05-15 with 1,717 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
Get Alerted When ACRE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 37.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 37.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.84
74.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $4.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.81 to $5.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (31.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 37.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $4.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.50 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $4.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.50 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$4.81 -
$5.12
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.81 -
$5.12
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.25
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.67
Resistance Level
$4.97
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.78
Wall Street Target
$5.50
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-37.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 31.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-37.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.93
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→32)
$14.40
(+197%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 32.6%)
$32.49
(+570%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 32.6%)
$11.31
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 32.6%)
$9.62
(+98%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 31.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.76
(+307.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+307.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anton Feingold
SELL
7606 shares
2026-01-14
Bryan Patrick Donohoe
SELL
21761 shares
2026-01-14
Jeffrey Michael Gonzales
SELL
6218 shares
2026-01-14
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$15 | 55 HOLD |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp |
BUY
15 analysts |
$12 | 54 HOLD |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 54 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 55 HOLD |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 62 BUY |
