AFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFG - American Financial Group, Inc.
$130.27
1.46 (1.13%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.07
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFG is currently trading at $130.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.25 to $136.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.83 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.83 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$129.25 -
$136.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($143.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$129.25 -
$136.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.09
Resistance Level
$132.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.35
Wall Street Target
$143.83
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$125.74
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$124.23
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$129.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.9%)
$373.80
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 13.9%)
$190.23
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 13.9%)
$161.70
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.53
Bull Case
$168.28
(+29%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$152.98
(+17%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$87.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$133.93
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Craig Lindner Jr
SELL
10000 shares
2025-08-21
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Advanced AFG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AFG price and gamma walls.
