AFRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFRM - Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$60.30
-2.50 (-3.98%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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7 traders called AFRM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AFRM is down 15.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AFRM is down 15.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.36
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.68
41.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFRM is currently trading at $60.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.50 to $79.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+52.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+52.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$68.50 -
$79.61
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AFRM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.6% below Wall St target ($92.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$68.50 -
$79.61
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.69
Resistance Level
$75.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.30
Wall Street Target
$92.00
(+52.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.6%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 24.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$48.84
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$43.96
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→25)
$66.09
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.9%)
$149.58
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 21.9%)
$109.30
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 21.9%)
$92.91
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (67x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 67.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.90
Bull Case
$72.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 70.5
Base Case
$60.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 67.1
Bear Case
$46.13
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 60.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$90.66
(+50.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Max R Levchin
SELL
651713 shares
2025-09-22
Siphelele Jiyane
SELL
12500 shares
2025-09-15
Siphelele Jiyane
SELL
25533 shares
2025-09-04
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Advanced AFRM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AFRM price and gamma walls.
