AHCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AHCO - AdaptHealth Corp. Common Stock
$10.76
0.16 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+7.39%
30d:
+11.5%
90d:
-9.27%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AHCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AHCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.36
19.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AHCO is currently trading at $10.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.70 to $10.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHCO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AHCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+30.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHCO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AHCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+30.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.70 -
$10.32
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.1% below Wall St target ($14.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.70 -
$10.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.53
Resistance Level
$10.95
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+30.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Profit Margin
-2.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.65
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.55
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$10.44
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$10.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 39.9%)
$70.06
(+551%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 39.9%)
$29.44
(+174%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 39.9%)
$25.02
(+133%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.05
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AHCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
447100 shares
2026-03-20
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
727 shares
2026-03-19
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
689336 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AHCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AHCO price and gamma walls.
