AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$106.59
3.43 (3.32%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-11.0%
90d:
+26.13%
SELL
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 24, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
AIR is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $90 2026-05-15 with 28 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⚠️ CAUTION: AIR is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
⚠️ CAUTION: AIR is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.90
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $106.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.05 to $117.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.62, while resistance sits at $122.97. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.67 (+21.8%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.62, while resistance sits at $122.97. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.67 (+21.8%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$106.05 -
$117.38
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
Protect Your Profits
Before you sell your AIR shares, consider hedging with options to lock in your gains without triggering a tax event.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($125.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$106.05 -
$117.38
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.62
Resistance Level
$122.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.39
Wall Street Target
$125.67
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.72
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$100.29
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$98.89
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$103.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$189.32
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$155.77
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 14.7%)
$132.40
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.56
Bull Case
$222.93
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$202.66
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.6
Bear Case
$68.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$107.71
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
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SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-03
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SELL
9947 shares
2026-01-14
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
