HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$272.37
-0.73 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
+7.22%
90d:
+11.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HWM is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $250 2026-06-18 with 2,400 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HWM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HWM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.03
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $272.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $239.83 to $263.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.4) is in line with its historical norms (45.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $237.87, while resistance sits at $280.74.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $237.87, while resistance sits at $280.74.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$239.83 -
$263.94
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HWM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($296.03)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$239.83 -
$263.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$237.87
Resistance Level
$280.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.41
Wall Street Target
$296.03
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
46.4 vs 45.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$274.19
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$275.29
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$276.39
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→46)
PE COMPRESSION
$273.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.4, Growth: 17.7%)
$445.34
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$211.47
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 17.7%)
$179.75
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (62x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 62.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$404.17
(+48%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 68.7
Base Case
$367.42
(+35%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 62.4
Bear Case
$183.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Barbara Lou Shultz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-26
Neil Edward Marchuk
SELL
45150 shares
2026-02-18
Byron Donalds
SELL
2026-01-08
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