NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$549.01
29.06 (5.59%)
▲
5d:
+9.95%
30d:
+2.31%
90d:
-21.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
17d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 85% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 85% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$841.29
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$522.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $549.01, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $513.62 to $554.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (20.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $553.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $689.33 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $553.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $689.33 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$513.62 -
$554.66
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($689.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$513.62 -
$554.66
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$493.84
Resistance Level
$553.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.20
Wall Street Target
$689.33
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.9%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 20.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$524.85
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$501.76
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$479.68
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$550.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$825.72
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 7.9%)
$690.04
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 7.9%)
$586.54
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.92
Bull Case
$540.47
(-2%)
Analyst growth -5.5%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$491.33
(-11%)
Market implied -5.5%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$353.57
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 20.9
Stabilization Target:
$630.41
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Hardesty
SELL
147 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin R Davies
SELL
2189 shares
2026-02-18
Kathy J Warden
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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