AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$217.61
1.27 (0.59%)
▲
5d:
+3.49%
30d:
-3.53%
90d:
-15.91%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AJG is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-05-15 with 386 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
Get Alerted When AJG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$370.62
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$230.13
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $217.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.35 to $223.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $221.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.32 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $221.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.32 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$209.35 -
$223.52
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($271.32)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$209.35 -
$223.52
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$205.90
Resistance Level
$221.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.65
Wall Street Target
$271.32
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$207.38
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$197.64
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$188.35
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$217.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$432.92
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$308.42
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$262.16
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.74
Bull Case
$472.60
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$429.64
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.4
Bear Case
$146.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$250.96
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 4:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelly Morrison
SELL
2026-03-08
Kelly Morrison
SELL
2026-03-08
Scott R Hudson
SELL
3800 shares
2026-03-06
Top Rated Insurance Brokers Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance Brokers by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WTW
Willis Towers Watson PLC |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$371 | 58 HOLD |
|
AON
Aon PLC |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$397 | 62 BUY |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Compani… |
SELL
20 analysts |
$211 | 61 BUY |
|
BRO
Brown & Brown Inc |
HOLD
12 analysts |
$83 | 63 BUY |
|
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Gr… |
BUY
8 analysts |
$30 | 61 BUY |
Advanced AJG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AJG price and gamma walls.
