BWIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$28.41
1.50 (5.57%)
▲
5d:
+18.33%
30d:
+45.84%
90d:
+31.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: BWIN is 15.6% above its trading range ($24.58). Market expects 5.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: BWIN is 15.6% above its trading range ($24.58). Market expects 5.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.46
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.85
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $28.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.04 to $24.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.04 -
$24.58
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+15.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with 28.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 15.6% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.04 -
$24.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.84
Resistance Level
$28.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$29.67
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
-2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 9.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.92
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$31.50
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$33.17
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.2%)
$104.39
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 24.2%)
$54.44
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 24.2%)
$46.27
(+63%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Elizabeth Krystyn
SELL
119987 shares
2026-03-06
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
15200 shares
2026-03-03
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
29000 shares
2026-03-02
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