BWIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$20.02
0.21 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
-16.69%
90d:
+21.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BWIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BWIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.59
34.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $20.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.70 to $24.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.56 (+47.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.56 (+47.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.70 -
$24.52
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.6% below Wall St target ($29.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.70 -
$24.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.53
Resistance Level
$23.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.97
Wall Street Target
$29.56
(+47.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
-2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.48
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$17.06
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$15.74
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$19.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 24.9%)
$108.07
(+440%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 24.9%)
$39.05
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 24.9%)
$33.19
(+66%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$25.36
(+26.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Elizabeth Krystyn
SELL
119987 shares
2026-03-06
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
15200 shares
2026-03-03
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
29000 shares
2026-03-02
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