AL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AL - Air Lease Corporation
$64.63
0.12 (0.19%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.34
16.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AL is currently trading at $64.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.18 to $64.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$64.18 -
$64.40
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
AL is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($65.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$64.18 -
$64.40
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.28
Resistance Level
$64.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.77
Wall Street Target
$65.00
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.6%
Profit Margin
35.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.70
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$64.90
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$65.09
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 26.0%)
$328.28
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 26.0%)
$129.17
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 26.0%)
$109.80
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.62
Bull Case
$60.43
(-7%)
Analyst growth -14.7%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$54.93
(-15%)
Market implied -14.7%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$43.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-19
David Beker
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-15
Grant A Levy
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-12
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Advanced AL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AL price and gamma walls.
