AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$139.71
-0.06 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
-4.45%
30d:
-5.25%
90d:
-8.42%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.73
Based on -6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $139.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.29 to $147.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.78 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.78 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$139.29 -
$147.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($163.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.29 -
$147.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$138.39
Resistance Level
$152.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$163.78
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$130.43
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$125.99
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$139.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -17.4%)
$373.76
(+167%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -17.4%)
$139.04
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -17.4%)
$118.18
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.65
Bull Case
$117.46
(-16%)
Analyst growth -24.8%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$106.78
(-24%)
Market implied -24.8%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$96.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$154.92
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 11:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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