AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$147.84
5.92 (4.17%)
▲
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
+10.29%
90d:
+5.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.10
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $147.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.81 to $146.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $151.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.50 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $151.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.50 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$136.81 -
$146.40
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($165.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$136.81 -
$146.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.18
Resistance Level
$151.47
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$165.50
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$146.51
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$145.19
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$143.88
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$147.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.0%)
$359.65
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -1.0%)
$143.40
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -1.0%)
$121.89
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.79
Bull Case
$116.62
(-21%)
Analyst growth -25.3%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$106.01
(-28%)
Market implied -25.3%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$96.51
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$151.52
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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