AMCR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMCR - Amcor plc Ordinary Shares
$44.25
0.36 (0.82%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMCR is 11.0% above fair value ($39.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMCR is 11.0% above fair value ($39.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.48
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMCR is currently trading at $44.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.53 to $39.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMCR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMCR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.01 (+25.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMCR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMCR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.01 (+25.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$5.53 -
$39.88
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
AMCR is technically overbought (RSI 89). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($55.01)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.53 -
$39.88
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.85
Resistance Level
$45.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.87
Wall Street Target
$55.01
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.4%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.27
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$40.70
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$39.20
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$44.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$132.71
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$58.74
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$49.93
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$97.22
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$88.38
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$30.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$49.36
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMCR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
Stephen E Sterrett
BUY
10000 shares
2025-08-19
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