AON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AON - Aon plc Class A
$323.07
-0.99 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-1.21%
30d:
-4.36%
90d:
-9.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
AON is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $370 2026-05-15 with 273 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 138% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 138% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$538.95
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$334.65
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AON is currently trading at $323.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $317.90 to $333.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 138.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $328.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $397.42 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $328.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $397.42 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$317.90 -
$333.76
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($397.42)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$317.90 -
$333.76
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$312.05
Resistance Level
$328.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.05
Wall Street Target
$397.42
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
138.3%
Profit Margin
21.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$312.72
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$301.77
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$291.21
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$324.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$688.72
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$463.89
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$394.31
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.03
Bull Case
$452.74
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.4%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$411.58
(+26%)
Market implied 26.4%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$221.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$361.64
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darren Zeidel
SELL
5040 shares
2026-02-17
Lester B Knight
BUY
4000 shares
2026-02-10
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Advanced AON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AON price and gamma walls.
