APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$164.59
-7.63 (-4.43%)
▼
5d:
-0.34%
30d:
+10.91%
90d:
+28.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.71
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $164.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.37 to $165.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.21, while resistance sits at $178.52. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: APH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.00 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.21, while resistance sits at $178.52. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: APH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.00 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$145.37 -
$165.42
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($184.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.37 -
$165.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.21
Resistance Level
$178.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.74
Wall Street Target
$184.00
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
28.7 vs 28.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.92
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$165.25
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$165.58
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$164.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$275.12
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$208.46
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 18.7%)
$177.19
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.47
Bull Case
$312.61
(+90%)
Analyst growth 65.0%, PE expands to 54.6
Base Case
$284.19
(+73%)
Market implied 65.0%, PE stable at 49.6
Bear Case
$117.11
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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