AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$6.16
0.01 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-1.6%
30d:
-11.75%
90d:
-0.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.14
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.29
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $6.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.21 to $6.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.21 -
$6.81
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.72)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.21 -
$6.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.11
Resistance Level
$6.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.21
Wall Street Target
$6.72
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.92
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$5.69
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$5.47
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$6.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$12.69
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$8.63
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$7.34
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 17.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.36
Bull Case
$7.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$6.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$4.79
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$6.93
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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