ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$10.81
-0.14 (-1.28%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.31
Based on -0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.78
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $10.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.76 to $10.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $11.21.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $11.21.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$9.76 -
$10.34
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.1% growth with -6.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.76 -
$10.34
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.86
Resistance Level
$11.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.08
Wall Street Target
$11.25
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.1%
Profit Margin
51.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.40
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$11.87
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$12.35
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.94
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.5%)
$17.04
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: -5.5%)
$9.23
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: -5.5%)
$7.85
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$12.10
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$11.00
(+2%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$7.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stuart Rothstein
SELL
52073 shares
2025-09-15
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARI price and gamma walls.
