ARW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARW - Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$208.37
-5.87 (-2.74%)
▼
5d:
+6.88%
30d:
+21.26%
90d:
+33.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$284.61
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$176.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARW is currently trading at $208.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $164.84 to $198.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 201.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $182.72, while resistance sits at $215.68.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $182.72, while resistance sits at $215.68.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$164.84 -
$198.89
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
ARW is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($214.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$164.84 -
$198.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.89
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$182.73
Resistance Level
$215.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.78
Wall Street Target
$214.50
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
201.3%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.66
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$202.99
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$200.35
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$208.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.1%)
$577.64
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$255.98
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 7.1%)
$217.59
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.98
Bull Case
$329.63
(+54%)
Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$299.66
(+40%)
Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$144.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$217.31
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William F Austen
BUY
3960 shares
2026-02-19
Richard John Marano
SELL
2500 shares
2026-02-17
Carine Lamercie Jean-Cla…
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-11
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