ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASML - ASML Holding NV
$1423.00
-32.16 (-2.21%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 28, 2026
0d
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9 traders called ASML this week
56% bullish • 4 bearish
56% bullish • 4 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1656.49
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1028.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1423.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1121.17 to $1392.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 42.2) compared to its historical average (49.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1311.31, while resistance sits at $1493.47.
Market Sentiment: ASML has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1311.31, while resistance sits at $1493.47.
Market Sentiment: ASML has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$1121.17 -
$1392.60
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASML? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1401.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1121.17 -
$1392.60
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1311.31
Resistance Level
$1493.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.23
Wall Street Target
$1401.10
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.2 vs 49.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1379.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$1307.76
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$1239.75
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→50)
$1453.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.2, Growth: 24.4%)
$2798.52
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.4%)
$1477.70
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 24.4%)
$1256.04
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 50.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.80
Bull Case
$1522.46
(+5%)
Analyst growth -4.8%, PE expands to 55.6
Base Case
$1384.06
(-5%)
Market implied -4.8%, PE stable at 50.5
Bear Case
$989.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.2 to 49.5
Stabilization Target:
$1705.57
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASML showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASML Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASML price and gamma walls.
