LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$351.41
-39.85 (-10.19%)
▼
5d:
-12.55%
30d:
+5.08%
90d:
+58.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LRCX is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LRCX is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$390.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$242.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $351.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $322.97 to $392.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 43.8) compared to its historical average (37.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $342.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $342.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$322.97 -
$392.62
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($348.65)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$322.97 -
$392.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$342.48
Resistance Level
$438.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.76
Wall Street Target
$348.65
(-0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
43.8 vs 37.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$370.74
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$391.13
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$412.64
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→37)
PE COMPRESSION
$350.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.8, Growth: 41.4%)
$993.05
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.4%)
$494.24
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 41.4%)
$420.11
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.13
Bull Case
$424.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$351.41
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.3
Bear Case
$268.83
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
David Taylor
BUY
2026-03-12
Ava Harter
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-04
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