LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$284.72
-14.43 (-4.82%)
▼
5d:
-3.17%
30d:
+9.1%
90d:
+20.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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7 traders called LRCX this week
88% bullish • 1 bearish
88% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LRCX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LRCX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$385.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$239.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $284.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $247.73 to $286.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.0) is in line with its historical norms (35.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $254.95, while resistance sits at $302.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $254.95, while resistance sits at $302.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$247.73 -
$286.37
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($310.47)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$247.73 -
$286.37
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$254.95
Resistance Level
$302.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.98
Wall Street Target
$310.47
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
36.0 vs 35.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$285.86
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$287.00
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$288.15
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→36)
PE COMPRESSION
$284.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.0, Growth: 39.4%)
$771.84
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 39.4%)
$473.42
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 39.4%)
$402.41
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.59 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.57
Bull Case
$343.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.5
Base Case
$284.72
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.6
Bear Case
$217.81
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
David Taylor
BUY
2026-03-12
Ava Harter
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-04
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