ATRA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ATRA - Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc
$9.93
4.78 (92.82%)
▲
5d:
+108.18%
30d:
+98.2%
90d:
+120.18%
SELL
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
12d
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9 traders called ATRA this week
64% bullish • 4 bearish
64% bullish • 4 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⚠️ CAUTION: ATRA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
⚠️ CAUTION: ATRA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.95
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.87
33.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ATRA is currently trading at $9.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.15 to $6.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATRA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.52, while resistance sits at $12.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 92.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATRA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.52, while resistance sits at $12.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 92.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.15 -
$6.06
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
34.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+63.9% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+92.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($9.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.15 -
$6.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.52
Resistance Level
$12.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.26
Wall Street Target
$9.33
(-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-95.1%
Profit Margin
27.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→21)
$12.46
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 2.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.57
Bull Case
$2.83
(-72%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 2.2
Base Case
$2.58
(-74%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 2.0
Bear Case
$3.50
(-65%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$17.09
(+72.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 7:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ATRA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
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