AXSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXSM - Axsome Therapeutics, Inc
$244.31
3.65 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+2.94%
30d:
+9.97%
90d:
+42.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 24.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 24.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$206.59
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXSM is currently trading at $244.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.78 to $248.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.4) compared to its historical average (94.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 24.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $236.44, while resistance sits at $260.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $276.47 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $236.44, while resistance sits at $260.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $276.47 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$229.78 -
$248.13
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($276.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.78 -
$248.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$236.44
Resistance Level
$260.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.43
Wall Street Target
$276.47
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.4%
Profit Margin
-26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-24.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.4 vs 94.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-24.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$219.88
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$197.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$178.10
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→94)
$405.85
(+66%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.4 to 94.4
Stabilization Target:
$556.72
(+127.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+127.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ari Maizel
SELL
7500 shares
2026-04-22
Mark Coleman
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Mark L Jacobson
SELL
35378 shares
2026-02-26
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