AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$97.36
6.80 (7.51%)
▲
5d:
+13.46%
30d:
-24.09%
90d:
+14.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 63% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 63% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.22
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $97.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.14 to $118.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 63.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.86 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.86 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$89.14 -
$118.54
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($121.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$89.14 -
$118.54
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.99
Resistance Level
$97.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.83
Wall Street Target
$121.86
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
75.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.1%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.69
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$88.24
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$84.00
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$97.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 2.1%)
$235.73
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 2.1%)
$103.66
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 2.1%)
$88.11
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.19
Bull Case
$164.16
(+92%)
Analyst growth 86.6%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$149.23
(+74%)
Market implied 86.6%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$54.39
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$112.93
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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