AGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGI - Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares
$40.22
-3.24 (-7.47%)
▼
5d:
-7.3%
30d:
-16.86%
90d:
-11.13%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AGI is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-06-18 with 4,579 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.81
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.18
19.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGI is currently trading at $40.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.45 to $47.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1144.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $45.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $45.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.45 -
$47.72
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AGI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.2% below Wall St target ($60.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.45 -
$47.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.55
Resistance Level
$45.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.03
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(+39.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1144.7%
Profit Margin
51.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.68
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$39.97
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$38.33
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$43.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$117.32
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$69.35
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$58.95
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$63.82
(+47%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$58.01
(+34%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$29.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$49.37
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AGI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGI price and gamma walls.
