AGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGI - Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares
$40.23
-3.23 (-7.43%)
▼
5d:
-7.26%
30d:
-16.83%
90d:
-11.09%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AGI is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-06-18 with 4,573 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.26
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.84
19.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGI is currently trading at $40.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.26 to $47.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1144.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $45.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+50.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $45.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+50.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.26 -
$47.62
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AGI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.4% below Wall St target ($60.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.26 -
$47.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.55
Resistance Level
$45.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.06
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(+50.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1144.7%
Profit Margin
51.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.62
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$35.17
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$32.88
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$40.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$117.48
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$64.19
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 16.9%)
$54.57
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$63.82
(+59%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$58.01
(+44%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$29.68
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$49.04
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AGI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGI price and gamma walls.
