BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$84.40
-4.53 (-5.09%)
▼
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
+6.2%
90d:
+15.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 16, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BHP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BHP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.40
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $84.40, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.21 to $84.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.47, while resistance sits at $91.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.07. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.47, while resistance sits at $91.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.07. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$76.21 -
$84.70
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading 24.6% above Wall St target ($67.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.21 -
$84.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.47
Resistance Level
$91.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.72
Wall Street Target
$67.07
(-24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.86
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$94.90
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$98.03
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$89.13
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 7.3%)
$144.85
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 7.3%)
$109.87
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$93.39
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.02
Bull Case
$132.19
(+49%)
Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$120.17
(+35%)
Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$61.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Gottheimer
SELL
2025-11-19
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