BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$21.59
-0.74 (-3.31%)
▼
5d:
-11.01%
30d:
-22.62%
90d:
-13.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BILI is down 11.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BILI is down 11.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.89
47.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $21.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.70 to $28.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (3.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 429.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.71 (+37.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.71 (+37.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$23.70 -
$28.55
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.5% below Wall St target ($30.71)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.70 -
$28.55
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.70
Resistance Level
$26.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.38
Wall Street Target
$30.71
(+37.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
429.5%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 3.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.09
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.28
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→4)
$24.65
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 31.7%)
$480.83
(+2053%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 31.7%)
$51.03
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.0, Growth: 31.7%)
$43.38
(+94%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.03
Bull Case
$29.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$24.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$18.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.4 to 3.6
Stabilization Target:
$33.82
(+51.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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