TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$8.63
-0.03 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
+5.76%
30d:
-9.25%
90d:
-6.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TME trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TME trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.37
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.16
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $8.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.47 to $9.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.42 (+78.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.42 (+78.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.7% below Wall St target ($15.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.77
Resistance Level
$9.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.20
Wall Street Target
$15.42
(+78.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.77
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.99
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$8.38
(-3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$212.11
(+2358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$11.70
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.0, Growth: 10.7%)
$9.94
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$19.05
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$17.32
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$5.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.2 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.50
(+33.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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