TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$8.47
-0.13 (-1.51%)
▼
5d:
-8.33%
30d:
-16.55%
90d:
-46.56%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.46
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.47
26.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $8.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.94 to $9.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.65 (+108.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.65 (+108.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.94 -
$9.72
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 108.3% below Wall St target ($17.65)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.94 -
$9.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.44
Resistance Level
$9.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.16
Wall Street Target
$17.65
(+108.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.86
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.17
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$9.58
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.1%)
$214.97
(+2438%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 10.1%)
$11.29
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.0, Growth: 10.1%)
$9.60
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$18.92
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$17.20
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$5.85
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.2 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$13.15
(+55.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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