BLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLMN - Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$6.00
-0.16 (-2.60%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BLMN is down 22.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BLMN is down 22.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.95
Based on -9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.45
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLMN is currently trading at $6.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.29 to $7.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLMN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.60 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLMN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.60 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.29 -
$7.48
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLMN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($7.60)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -22.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.29 -
$7.48
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.86
Resistance Level
$8.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.11
Wall Street Target
$7.60
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.02
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.89
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5.76
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -22.5%)
$14.09
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: -22.5%)
$4.49
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: -22.5%)
$3.82
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$13.60
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$12.36
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$4.20
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.59
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BLMN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BLMN price and gamma walls.