YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$42.49
0.79 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+4.01%
30d:
-1.05%
90d:
-13.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YUMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YUMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.91
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.52
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $42.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.25 to $43.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.34 (+44.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.34 (+44.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.25 -
$43.60
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.4% below Wall St target ($61.34)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.25 -
$43.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.32
Resistance Level
$44.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.01
Wall Street Target
$61.34
(+44.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.03
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$37.70
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$35.52
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$42.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.4%)
$100.96
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$60.32
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$51.28
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$57.38
(+35%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$52.17
(+23%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$28.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$50.61
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 4:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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