YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$44.56
-0.38 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
-19.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YUMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YUMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.29
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.37
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $44.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.18 to $49.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.69 (+38.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.69 (+38.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.18 -
$49.02
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($61.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.18 -
$49.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.40
Resistance Level
$48.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.67
Wall Street Target
$61.69
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$39.88
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$37.72
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$44.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.6%)
$99.53
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$61.86
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$52.58
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$64.11
(+43%)
Analyst growth 29.9%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$58.28
(+30%)
Market implied 29.9%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$30.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$52.49
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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