MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$276.39
1.42 (0.52%)
▲
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
-9.96%
90d:
-15.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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30 traders called MCD this week
77% bullish • 17 bearish
77% bullish • 17 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$441.30
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$274.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $276.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $281.63 to $306.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.21 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $271.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.21 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$281.63 -
$306.52
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($331.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$281.63 -
$306.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$271.98
Resistance Level
$291.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.47
Wall Street Target
$331.21
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 22.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$263.40
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$251.02
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$239.22
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→23)
$276.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$410.40
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$362.11
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$307.80
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.13
Bull Case
$353.91
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.0%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$321.74
(+16%)
Market implied 17.0%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$186.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$319.35
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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