Is MCD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCD is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MCD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCD to be between $271.00 and $283.20. The current price is $280.63.

What is the analyst price target for MCD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCD is $330.47. This implies a potential upside of 17.8% from current levels.

MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCD - McDonald's Corporation

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$280.63

11.20 (4.16%) ▲

5d: +6.08%

30d: +1.55%

90d: -8.68%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your MCD Gains

Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

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Strength: 7.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$429.28

Based on 6.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$266.55

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $280.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $271.00 to $283.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $285.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: MCD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $330.47 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $271.00 - $283.20

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 45.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($330.47)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $271.00 - $283.20

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $271.85

Resistance Level $285.31

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.74

Wall Street Target $330.47 (+17.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.9%

Profit Margin 31.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.7 vs 21.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $271.37 (-3%)

2-Year Target $262.41 (-7%)

3-Year Target $253.75 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→22) $280.24 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.5%) $406.72 (+45%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 9.5%) $368.61 (+31%)

Bear: (PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.5%) $313.32 (+12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 22.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.14

Bull Case $347.07 (+24%)

Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 24.4

Base Case $315.52 (+12%)

Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 22.2

Bear Case $183.21 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 21.8

Stabilization Target: $309.93 (+10.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +10.4%

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Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Joseph M Erlinger SELL 333 shares 2026-04-23

Joseph M Erlinger SELL 2626 shares 2026-04-10

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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