CAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAT - Caterpillar Inc.
$657.36
-7.88 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
+4.91%
30d:
+13.85%
90d:
+12.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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3 traders called CAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1176.98
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$730.81
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAT is currently trading at $657.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $591.21 to $646.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $619.26, while resistance sits at $679.99.
Market Sentiment: CAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $619.26, while resistance sits at $679.99.
Market Sentiment: CAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$591.21 -
$646.60
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($639.11)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$591.21 -
$646.60
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$619.26
Resistance Level
$679.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.14
Wall Street Target
$639.11
(-2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.5%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 26.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$636.32
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$615.96
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$596.25
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$657.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 19.4%)
$1118.09
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.4%)
$1033.06
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.4%)
$878.10
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.49
Bull Case
$818.56
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$744.14
(+13%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$437.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 26.6
Stabilization Target:
$724.48
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 8:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
17166 shares
2025-10-10
Donald J Umpleby III
SELL
17166 shares
2025-09-22
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SELL
17168 shares
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAT price and gamma walls.
