PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$112.60
0.82 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
-8.81%
90d:
-9.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
PCAR is down 4.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 346 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.94
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.60
14.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $112.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.92 to $126.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.12 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.12 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$114.92 -
$126.35
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($126.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.92 -
$126.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.23
Resistance Level
$118.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.77
Wall Street Target
$126.12
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 18.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.55
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$104.64
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$100.87
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$112.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 18.3%)
$245.29
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 18.3%)
$186.60
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 18.3%)
$158.61
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$177.58
(+58%)
Analyst growth 44.4%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$161.43
(+43%)
Market implied 44.4%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$76.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$125.58
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brice J Poplawski
SELL
2200 shares
2026-02-12
R Preston Feight
SELL
9258 shares
2026-02-04
C Michael Dozier
SELL
79076 shares
2026-02-03
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Advanced PCAR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.
