CDNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CDNA - CareDx, Inc.
$20.49
-0.12 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
-4.43%
30d:
+16.62%
90d:
+7.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
CDNA is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $17.5 2026-06-18 with 117 OI. Put ratio: 83% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CDNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CDNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.52
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.16
18.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CDNA is currently trading at $20.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.26 to $21.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.80 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.80 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.26 -
$21.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($25.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.26 -
$21.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.42
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.37
Resistance Level
$22.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.17
Wall Street Target
$25.80
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 19.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.03
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.47
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$18.93
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$20.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 21.4%)
$44.73
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$36.89
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$31.35
(+52%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$22.45
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CDNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
10282 shares
2026-04-16
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
19280 shares
2026-01-22
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
200 shares
2026-01-21
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Advanced CDNA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CDNA price and gamma walls.
