CDNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CDNA - CareDx, Inc.
$29.19
-0.06 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
+4.81%
30d:
+32.26%
90d:
+63.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CDNA is 7.4% above its trading range ($27.17). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CDNA is 7.4% above its trading range ($27.17). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.93
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CDNA is currently trading at $29.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.99 to $27.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.7) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $30.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CDNA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $25.80. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $30.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CDNA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $25.80. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.99 -
$27.17
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.9%
Protect Your Profits
CDNA is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.6% above Wall St target ($25.80)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.99 -
$27.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.98
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.93
Resistance Level
$30.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.74
Wall Street Target
$25.80
(-11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.8% premium
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.76
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$34.55
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$37.59
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 21.4%)
$52.24
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$44.20
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.4%)
$37.57
(+29%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CDNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
10282 shares
2026-04-16
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
19280 shares
2026-01-22
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
200 shares
2026-01-21
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Advanced CDNA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CDNA price and gamma walls.
