CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$89.84
-3.39 (-3.64%)
▼
5d:
-1.97%
30d:
+16.16%
90d:
+8.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
14d
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1 traders called CF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.02
Based on -6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $89.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.21 to $91.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $87.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $87.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$79.21 -
$91.05
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($91.89)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.21 -
$91.05
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.54
Resistance Level
$95.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.38
Wall Street Target
$91.89
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$94.02
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$96.18
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$90.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -17.1%)
$117.94
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -17.1%)
$65.49
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -17.1%)
$55.67
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.20
Bull Case
$90.73
(+1%)
Analyst growth -11.5%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$82.49
(-8%)
Market implied -11.5%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$63.40
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 9:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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