CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$130.59
2.61 (2.04%)
▲
5d:
-1.49%
30d:
+24.71%
90d:
+68.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CF is down 7.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $145 2026-05-15 with 1,405 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CF is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CF is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.25
Based on -12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $130.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.85 to $131.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $115.22, while resistance sits at $141.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $112.32. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $115.22, while resistance sits at $141.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $112.32. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$104.85 -
$131.49
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.2% above Wall St target ($112.32)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$104.85 -
$131.49
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.22
Resistance Level
$141.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.22
Wall Street Target
$112.32
(-12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.61
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$139.49
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$145.63
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$128.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -29.0%)
$137.03
(+7%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: -29.0%)
$93.30
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: -29.0%)
$79.30
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.97
Bull Case
$117.40
(-2%)
Analyst growth -14.5%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$106.73
(-11%)
Market implied -14.5%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$84.93
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bert A Frost
SELL
6250 shares
2026-03-12
Susan L Menzel
SELL
18041 shares
2026-03-12
Bert A Frost
SELL
5534 shares
2026-03-09
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