What is the fair value of CGNT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CGNT to be between $8.96 and $10.42. The current price is $9.79.

What is the analyst price target for CGNT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CGNT is $12.33. This implies a potential upside of 26.0% from current levels.

CGNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CGNT - Cognyte Software Ltd. Ordinary Shares

Services-Prepackaged Software

$9.79

0.13 (1.35%) ▲

5d: -11.88%

30d: +1.77%

90d: +38.67%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jun 10, 2026 24d

Smart Money Accumulation

CGNT is down 11.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 6,614 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CGNT is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$17.77

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$11.03

11.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CGNT is currently trading at $9.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.96 to $10.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (32.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.42, while resistance sits at $11.50.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $8.96 - $10.42

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($12.33)
WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $8.96 - $10.42

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $9.42

Resistance Level $11.50

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.82

Wall Street Target $12.33 (+26.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -74.8%

Profit Margin -0.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 26.8 vs 32.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $9.19 (-6%)

2-Year Target $8.63 (-12%)

3-Year Target $8.11 (-17%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→32) $9.79 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.8, Growth: 55.3%) $33.04 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 55.3%) $27.19 (+178%)

Bear: (PE: 18.8, Growth: 55.3%) $23.11 (+136%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.8 to 32.4

Stabilization Target: $11.83 (+20.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +20.8%

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Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced CGNT Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CGNT price and gamma walls.

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