CHEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$62.90
-0.06 (-0.10%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.70
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $62.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.12 to $64.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.3) is in line with its historical norms (29.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.12 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.12 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$61.12 -
$64.22
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($77.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.12 -
$64.22
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.54
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.11
Resistance Level
$66.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.33
Wall Street Target
$77.13
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.5%
Profit Margin
1.8%
PE vs Historical
29.3 vs 29.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.90
(0%)
2-Year Target
$62.90
(0%)
3-Year Target
$62.90
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→29)
$63.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.3, Growth: 15.3%)
$96.48
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.3%)
$73.36
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 15.3%)
$62.35
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$86.54
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 40.4
Base Case
$78.67
(+25%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$43.23
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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