USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$104.29
2.39 (2.35%)
▲
5d:
+8.39%
30d:
+29.2%
90d:
+14.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: USFD trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: USFD trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.15
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $104.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.41 to $98.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$83.41 -
$98.01
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
USFD is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.41 -
$98.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.11
Resistance Level
$89.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.01
Wall Street Target
$104.50
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 16.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.30
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$114.54
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$120.04
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.9%)
$190.79
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$166.53
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 16.9%)
$141.55
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$207.04
(+99%)
Analyst growth 84.7%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$188.22
(+81%)
Market implied 84.7%, PE stable at 34.3
Bear Case
$69.29
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
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