USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$82.66
-1.30 (-1.55%)
▼
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
-7.95%
90d:
-17.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
USFD is down 7.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-07-17 with 159 OI. Call ratio: 80% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: USFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: USFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.07
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.42
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $82.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.69 to $93.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.43 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.43 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.69 -
$93.38
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding USFD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($107.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.69 -
$93.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.39
Resistance Level
$95.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.16
Wall Street Target
$107.43
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.36
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$78.84
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$76.39
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$84.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.1%)
$195.88
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 17.1%)
$134.72
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 17.1%)
$114.51
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$175.26
(+109%)
Analyst growth 86.5%, PE expands to 31.6
Base Case
$159.33
(+90%)
Market implied 86.5%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$58.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$92.50
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
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