PFGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$97.44
0.65 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
+4.64%
30d:
+9.47%
90d:
-0.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.58
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $97.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.34 to $93.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.42 (+23.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.42 (+23.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$87.34 -
$93.66
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.4% below Wall St target ($119.42)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.34 -
$93.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.31
Resistance Level
$98.13
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.75
Wall Street Target
$119.42
(+23.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.8%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.37
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$104.08
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$107.94
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$96.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 24.9%)
$248.35
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 24.9%)
$188.76
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 24.9%)
$160.45
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$214.96
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$195.42
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.5
Bear Case
$66.44
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chasity D Grosh
SELL
1843 shares
2026-02-10
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