CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$38.87
-0.23 (-0.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
3d
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4 traders called CMG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.33
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.80
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $38.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.83 to $40.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.1) is in line with its historical norms (30.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.97 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.97 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.83 -
$40.20
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.97)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.83 -
$40.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.43
Resistance Level
$41.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.09
Wall Street Target
$44.97
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
32.1 vs 30.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$40.52
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$45.75
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$31.80
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$27.03
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$46.99
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 38.6
Base Case
$42.72
(+9%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 35.1
Bear Case
$26.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-09-12
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-05
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