CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$31.16
0.30 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
-6.59%
30d:
-16.28%
90d:
-17.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Distribution
CMG is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $37 2026-03-27 with 528 OI. Put ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.90
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.57
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $31.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.57 to $36.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (28.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$32.57 -
$36.95
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.8% below Wall St target ($44.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.6%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.57 -
$36.95
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.60
Resistance Level
$35.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.86
Wall Street Target
$44.50
(+42.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 28.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.85
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$26.72
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$24.74
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→29)
$31.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 19.4%)
$53.07
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.4%)
$51.89
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.4%)
$44.10
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$44.04
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$40.04
(+20%)
Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$22.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 28.8
Stabilization Target:
$39.25
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
5
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-11-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-11-10
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
