CNI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNI - Canadian National Railway
$111.79
-0.65 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
+0.13%
30d:
+2.6%
90d:
+3.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CNI is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $105 2026-07-17 with 997 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CNI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CNI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.36
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNI is currently trading at $111.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.29 to $113.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $108.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $108.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$108.29 -
$113.00
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($115.91)
- BEARISH: Market expects 1.7% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.29 -
$113.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$108.90
Resistance Level
$113.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.78
Wall Street Target
$115.91
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Profit Margin
27.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.69
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$115.62
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$117.59
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$112.22
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$266.72
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$154.49
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 11.4%)
$131.32
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.54
Bull Case
$195.23
(+75%)
Analyst growth 57.8%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$177.48
(+59%)
Market implied 57.8%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$76.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CNI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CNI price and gamma walls.
