COLL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$45.92
0.57 (1.26%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COLL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COLL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.35
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $45.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.47 to $48.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 213.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.62, while resistance sits at $48.29.
Market Sentiment: COLL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.17 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.62, while resistance sits at $48.29.
Market Sentiment: COLL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.17 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$45.47 -
$48.27
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($53.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$45.47 -
$48.27
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.72
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.62
Resistance Level
$48.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.71
Wall Street Target
$53.17
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
213.2%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 5.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.08
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.81
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$44.54
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$45.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.4%)
$213.07
(+370%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 6.4%)
$54.55
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 6.4%)
$46.37
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$98.60
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.3
Base Case
$89.64
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$30.48
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$46.07
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas B Smith
SELL
17478 shares
2025-08-29
Scott Dreyer
SELL
16389 shares
2025-08-18
Gino Santini
SELL
5405 shares
2025-08-15
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
