COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$101.79
-2.44 (-2.34%)
▼
5d:
+3.39%
30d:
+8.74%
90d:
+15.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.51
Based on -5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $101.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.55 to $100.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $94.97, while resistance sits at $105.72.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.18 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $94.97, while resistance sits at $105.72.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.18 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$94.55 -
$100.72
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.4% growth with 14.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$94.55 -
$100.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.98
Resistance Level
$105.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.20
Wall Street Target
$113.18
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.6%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 15.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.30
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$115.24
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$122.61
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -15.7%)
$86.19
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: -15.7%)
$74.20
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: -15.7%)
$61.45
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.18
Bull Case
$84.66
(-17%)
Analyst growth -26.2%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$76.96
(-24%)
Market implied -26.2%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$70.88
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Dan Newhouse
BUY
2025-08-18
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
