EAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EAT - Brinker International, Inc.
$157.72
-2.92 (-1.82%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.77
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EAT is currently trading at $157.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.12 to $163.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EAT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $152.26, while resistance sits at $168.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.68 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EAT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $152.26, while resistance sits at $168.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.68 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$149.12 -
$163.48
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($183.68)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$149.12 -
$163.48
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.26
Resistance Level
$168.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.31
Wall Street Target
$183.68
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
158.3%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$162.73
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$164.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$166.99
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$160.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$416.22
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$248.35
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$211.10
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.64
Bull Case
$216.42
(+35%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$196.75
(+23%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$106.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas N Comings
SELL
16000 shares
2025-09-09
Kevin Hochman
SELL
44000 shares
2025-08-27
Harriet Edelman
SELL
8325 shares
2025-08-14
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EAT price and gamma walls.
