EFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EFC - Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock
$12.85
-0.65 (-4.81%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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1 traders called EFC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.56
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EFC is currently trading at $12.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.46 to $13.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.46 -
$13.94
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EFC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.62)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.46 -
$13.94
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.72
Resistance Level
$14.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.28
Wall Street Target
$14.63
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.6%
Profit Margin
47.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.37
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.30
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$13.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.1%)
$42.69
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 1.1%)
$13.93
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 1.1%)
$11.84
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$20.65
(+61%)
Analyst growth 40.5%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$18.77
(+46%)
Market implied 40.5%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$9.08
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.73
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ronald I Simon
BUY
5544 shares
2025-09-11
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