EL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EL - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
$69.99
2.00 (2.95%)
▲
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-30.15%
90d:
-34.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
EL is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $90 2026-04-17 with 3,356 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.74
23.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $69.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.83 to $107.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (37.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.64, while resistance sits at $91.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.91 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.64, while resistance sits at $91.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.91 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$77.83 -
$107.16
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.8% below Wall St target ($105.91)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$77.83 -
$107.16
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.64
Resistance Level
$91.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.40
Wall Street Target
$105.91
(+55.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.6%
Profit Margin
-1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 37.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$55.06
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$49.56
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→37)
$82.53
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 36.3%)
$171.95
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 36.3%)
$171.58
(+152%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 36.3%)
$145.84
(+115%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 37.3
Stabilization Target:
$113.21
(+66.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-02
Meridith Webster
SELL
5430 shares
2025-11-18
Barry S Sternlicht
SELL
3972 shares
2025-11-11
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Advanced EL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EL price and gamma walls.
