ELF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$61.79
0.36 (0.59%)
▲
5d:
-3.41%
30d:
+0.03%
90d:
-19.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
18d
Smart Money Distribution
ELF is up 12.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $80 2026-06-18 with 1,834 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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2 traders called ELF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.34
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.69
22.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $61.79, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.88 to $66.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 116.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.09, while resistance sits at $67.82.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.60 (+48.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.09, while resistance sits at $67.82.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.60 (+48.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$60.88 -
$66.92
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ELF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.2% below Wall St target ($91.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.88 -
$66.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.09
Resistance Level
$67.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.01
Wall Street Target
$91.60
(+48.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
116.7%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.28
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$53.10
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$49.22
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$61.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 17.3%)
$128.49
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 17.3%)
$99.63
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 17.3%)
$84.69
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.77
Bull Case
$135.15
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$122.86
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$41.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$77.72
(+25.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 8:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tarang Amin
SELL
52880 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced ELF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ELF price and gamma walls.
