EXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXR - Extra Space Storage, Inc.
$128.28
-0.68 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-2.69%
30d:
-15.06%
90d:
-1.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
EXR is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 515 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.36
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXR is currently trading at $128.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.46 to $150.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.6) is in line with its historical norms (28.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.85 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.85 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$137.46 -
$150.61
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EXR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($152.85)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$137.46 -
$150.61
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.65
Resistance Level
$143.42
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.59
Wall Street Target
$152.85
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 28.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.07
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$121.95
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$118.90
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→29)
$128.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.6, Growth: 5.3%)
$149.70
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$125.81
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$106.94
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.59
Bull Case
$150.33
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$136.66
(+4%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$88.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.6 to 28.7
Stabilization Target:
$138.44
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph D Margolis
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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Advanced EXR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXR price and gamma walls.
